Analisis Pengaruh dan Kesesuaian Arah Penyaluran Kredit terhadap Sektor Ekonomi Potensial di Kalimantan Selatan

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of sectoral credit distribution on sectoral performance and to assess the alignment of credit allocation with potential economic sectors in South Kalimantan. The methods used include the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach to examine the influence of sectoral credit on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), as well as Location Quotient (LQ), Shift Share Analysis (SSA), and Overlay Matrix to identify key sectors and evaluate the appropriateness of credit distribution. The study uses quarterly data from 2015 to 2024, including GRDP, sectoral credit, and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) for the OLS analysis. Meanwhile, the LQ and SSA analyses utilize data from 2015 and 2024. The results show that sectoral credit has a simultaneous and significantly positive effect on GRDP. However, alignment between credit distribution and potential sectors is only evident in Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries; Transportation, Warehousing and Communication; Accommodation and Food Services; and Health and Social Services. Other sectors were found to be underfunded or oversupplied in terms of credit allocation. These findings carry important implications for the formulation of more strategic and targeted banking intermediation policies. It is recommended that local governments and financial institutions direct credit more strategically toward local leading sectors to support sustainable and potential-based regional economic development.